The Current State of the Russia-Ukraine War

THE CURRENT STATE OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Russia began this war two years ago because Ukraine, which it considers part of its sphere of influence, was drifting steadily towards the West. The idea was to arrest this development before it became irreversible.

Russia did not expect the vigorous resistance of Ukraine to the invasion. After two years of fighting Ukraine says 31,000 of its soldiers have died; there have been approximately 11,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine. Russian casualties are larger than Ukraine’s but are undisclosed by the Russian government. Estimates are that around 45,000 Russian soldiers have been killed so far. The current military situation is a stalemate, with front lines in eastern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian economy is supported by Western infusions of goods and money; its military effort depends on Western weapons.

Meanwhile, the Russian economy has been placed on a war footing and has largely been de-linked from Western countries. Russia now relies more on trade with the East, especially China and India. Western sanctions against Russia have not been as damaging to Russia as projected.

The most recent developments: Ukrainian drones have been attacking Russian oil refineries, with some success but not enough to affect Russian petroleum exports. Pope Francis has been chastised in the Western press for suggesting negotiations for peace, which everyone knows will be eventually necessary.

Sources: The New York Times, 3/15/24, AP News 2/25/24, Statista, 2/23//24,PBS Frontline, 2/23/24 and Radio Free Europe, 2/21/24.